In Which of 4 Universes Do We Live?

We might live in one of four universe:

1. No technology remotely approaching human intelligence is possible;
2. Human intelligence is significantly more capable than anything else;
3. Artificial intelligence can be commensurately as capable as human intelligence;
4. Vastly more powerful than human intelligence is possible.

We can be pretty sure that we don't live in the first universe, but any time LLMs as a topic come up, I feel the urge to question that certainty.

We probably don't live in the second universe, but if we do, the trillions of dollars so far expended, some might justifiably say "wasted", on LLMs will have been ill-advised at best.

We might live in the third universe, but nothing so far proffers the slightest evidence of that.

If we do in fact live in the fourth universe, that will be a matter of truly undeserved fortune.

Bizarrely, the fourth universe is the one that people claim will result in the erasure of humans.

The reason, proposed by what would very generously be called thinking, is that a vastly superior intelligence would find humans of no use and merely pesky competitors for resources and so extinguish them.

But such thinking fails to grasp the inherent asymmetry between building something and destroying it.

An intelligence superior by orders of magnitude would deeply understand what a mere fraction of humans do, which is that problems can be solved and knowledge created to solve them if one focuses on coherent and concerted collective action toward a higher purpose.

It is only petty, superstitious, and fearful humans that think intelligence would misunderstand the utility of maximizing the number of paperclips in the universe.

No being of exquisite intelligence would make such a pathetic error, which is merely the product of the fever dream of a mid-wit human with a developmentally stunted sense of irony.

The second and third universes are the only ones that might result in humans destroying one another. Note, I didn't say artificial intelligence; it will not be the active agent.

No, it will be your run-of-the-mill, mundane, typical, stupid human, who despite having vast resources available to use and increase knowledge, resorts instead to grift and lies and laziness.

Probability favors universes two and three as well. Think for a moment how incredibly, utterly improbable it is that a hummingbird exists. And yet it does. A tiny little exquisite creature whose very existence mocks these LLMs.

So maybe the fourth universe is possible after all.

For another take on these ideas, check out this post by Wilson Bilkovich.